Israel Close To Attacking Iranian Nuclear Facilities?

[MORTARDUDE]

Iran May Hide Its Nuclear Ambitions From Some, but
Not Israel

By Bennett Ramberg
Bennett Ramberg was a policy analyst in the State
Department's Bureau of
Politico-Military Affairs during the first Bush
administration. E-mail: bennett
ramberg@aol.com.

December 10, 2003

In early 1981, Moshe Arens, then chairman of the
Knesset Committee on Foreign
Affairs and Security, declared with striking
bluntness that Israel would
never allow Iraq to acquire nuclear weapons.
Months later, Israel made good on
Arens' remark: It bombed Iraq's Osirak reactor.

Without question, no nation is more concerned
about nuclear proliferation in
the Middle East than Israel. Furthermore, no
nation is more willing to take
action to halt it.

Recent statements by Israeli officials raise the
specter that Iran is now on
Israel's target list. Appearing before a Knesset
committee, Meir Dagan, head
of the Mossad intelligence agency, warned on Nov.
17 that Iran's nuclear
activities posed the gravest "threat to the
existence of Israel" since the state's
creation in 1948. A week earlier, in a visit to
Washington, Israeli Defense
Minister Shaul Mofaz declared that Iran was
reaching the "point of no return" in
its nuclear ambitions.

Has Israel initiated a countdown to destroy Iran's
capacity? Certainly, it
would be understandable if Israel doesn't believe
that others will take care of
the problem. The International Atomic Energy
Agency's attempt to halt Iran's
nuclear ambitions have failed. Despite the
agency's finding that Tehran
violated the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty for
nearly two decades, it decided to
not apply sanctions or require that Iran abandon
facilities that could produce
material for the bomb. Rather, the IAEA agreed to
accept Iran's new "spirit of
cooperation" while promising that "further
significant [safeguard] failures"
would "trigger" United Nations Security Council
consideration.

Israel is unlikely to accept this solution. Its
skepticism stems from a
unique perspective: It is quite familiar with the
artful, secret path Iran is
traveling as it builds the bomb under the noses of
international inspectors and
concerned countries. After all, Israel pioneered
the technique.

At the beginning of the Jewish state, Prime
Minister David Ben-Gurion,
understandably obsessed with Israel's
vulnerability to Arab attack, proposed a
three-part solution: robust conventional forces;
defensive alliances with the
United States, NATO and others; and nuclear
weapons. Although Israel never found an
alliance partner, it did establish the preeminent
conventional military force
in the region and it did successfully build the
bomb.

To do so, Israel shrouded its nuclear program in
secrecy, repeatedly
misrepresented its intentions to the international
community, received nuclear
assistance from benefactors who should have known
better and conned U.S. nuclear
inspectors.

The program gained steam when France agreed to
export a nuclear reactor to be
situated in Dimona, Israel, after the Jewish state
promised to use the plant
for peaceful purposes. In time, France got wind
that the program was going in
another direction but took no action. Ditto
Norway, from which Israel imported
heavy water.

As the years passed, the United States became a
stumbling block. Responding
to the Eisenhower administration's suspicions,
Israel stated that its nuclear
efforts promoted the "development of scientific
knowledge for eventual
industrial, agricultural, medical and other
scientific purposes." Further, nuclear
enterprises would help develop the Negev.
Ben-Gurion called claims that Israel
sought the bomb a "deliberate or unwitting
untruth."

Publicly, President Eisenhower bought this
representation. In a report to
Congress, the administration stated that it had
"been assured categorically at
the highest level of the Israeli government that
Israel has no plans for the
production of atomic weapons."

The Kennedy administration pressed for additional
assurances by demanding
inspections. Reluctantly, Israel agreed to
multiple visits by U.S. scientists,
who found no evidence that a nuclear program
existed. These findings were never
fully believed by the White House, which warned
Israel that if it didn't come
clean, U.S. military assistance would be
jeopardized.

Israel dithered. It declared that it would never
be the first country to
introduce nuclear weapons into the Middle East. It
also agreed to give careful
consideration to NPT membership. By this time,
1968, the matter was moot: Israel
already was well on the way to becoming a nuclear
weapons state, and
Washington's threat to cut off conventional
military sales proved to be a bluff.

Today, as it ponders Iran's false declarations,
concealed importation of
nuclear technology, construction of secret nuclear
fuel cycle facilities and the
impediments to inspection, Israel well understands
what Iran is up to. And,
just as Arens concluded in early 1981, it now
believes it must stop this nuclear
challenger.

The clock is ticking: Iran's Bushehr nuclear power
plant will come on line in
2005, and Iran can break its own moratorium on
operating nuclear enrichment
plants at any time.

If past is prologue, Israel could initiate an
attack soon. Only a mea culpa
by Tehran coupled with a thorough dismantling of
its nuclear weapons capacity -
akin to what South Africa and Ukraine undertook -
would satisfy Israel.
Absent that, the Jewish state will not allow the
mullahs, who call for Israel's
elimination, to follow in its own nuclear
footsteps.